Hurricane Season: WSI Predicts More Activity Than
In Quiet 2009, Georgia And Carolinas At More Risk
Andover, Mass., January 27, 2010
-- In its first hurricane season report for
2010, WSI Corporation -- a part of The Weather Channel companies -- calls
for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes (category 3 or
The 2010 forecast numbers fall between the long-term
(1950-2009) averages of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 intense
hurricanes and the averages from the more active recent 15-year period
(1995-2009) of 14/8/4.
WSI's hurricane landfall forecasting model (developed in collaboration with
reinsurance intermediary Guy Carpenter) suggests that Georgia and the
Carolinas are most at risk this season, with near to slightly-below normal
risks along other parts of the US coastline.
"2009 was the quietest tropical season since 1997, as an
emerging El Nino event combined with relatively cool tropical Atlantic
waters to suppress widespread development," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr.
Todd Crawford. "The previous five El Nino events have all been followed by
significant increases in tropical activity the following summer as the
vertical shear weakens and the tropical Atlantic warms up. We expect a
similar result this summer, and feel that our current forecast numbers are
more likely to be adjusted upwards rather than downwards as we get closer to
Crawford also indicated that the Southeast US had an
enhanced risk of hurricane landfall this season. "Our statistical landfall
forecast model, which takes into account northern hemispheric ocean
temperatures and current atmospheric patterns, is suggesting that Georgia
and the Carolinas are at greatest risk for hurricane landfall this season.
This model correctly predicted an active Gulf season in 2008 and a quiet
season in 2009."
WSI's next seasonal forecast update, which will include
forecasts for spring and early summer temperatures, will be issued on
February 23. The next update on the 2010 tropical season will be released on