The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports, ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.
The very slow start to this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is virtually unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption.
Sorghum FSI is unchanged but higher than the minimum seen in recent years as China is expected to continue to source sorghum from other exporters in addition to the United States. Corn feed and residual use is down 4.9 percent relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected season-average farm prices received by producers, and a decline in grain consuming animal units.
U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a 550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S. share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago.
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With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.
The global coarse grain outlook for 2022/23 is for lower production and use, and smaller ending stocks. World corn production is forecast to decline from last year’s record high, mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, the United States, the EU, and China that are partially offset by increases for Brazil, Argentina, Serbia, and South Africa. World corn use is expected to decline 1.2 percent, with foreign consumption down 0.9 percent.
World corn imports are projected to fall 2.3 percent, with the largest year-over-year declines for China, Canada, the EU, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. Notable increases in corn imports include Vietnam, Iran, and Bangladesh. Global corn ending stocks are down 1.4 percent to 305.1 million tons, mostly reflecting expected declines for China and the United States that are partially offset by increases for Brazil, Serbia, and Ukraine.
For China, total coarse grain imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 37.9 million tons, down 5.0 million from a year ago and below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. China’s internal market prices for energy feedstuffs remain higher than the world market, despite a surge in prices among major exporting countries. Corn imports are expected to decline 5.0 million tons to 18.0 million with a decline in imports from Ukraine. Barley imports are projected at 10.0 million tons and sorghum at 9.5 million.