WASDE Oilseeds: Higher Domestic Soybean Supplies, Crush, Exports

    Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

    The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2021/22. The soybean crop is projected at 4.64 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher harvested area. With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected at 4.89 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2021/22.

    Total U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 136.6 million tons, up 6.1 million from 2021/22 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola and sunflowerseed.

    The U.S. soybean crush for 2022/23 is projected at 2.26 billion bushels, up 40 million from the 2021/22 forecast. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2021/22 with low soybean meal prices relative to corn. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.4 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade near the prior 5-year average. With increased supplies, U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.2 billion bushels, up 60 million from the revised 2021/22 projection.

    Despite reduced soybean supplies available for export from South America for the first half of the 2022/23 marketing year, an anticipated record harvest and sharply higher exports beginning in early 2023 is expected to leave the U.S. with a lower share of global trade in 2022/23. U.S. ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 310 million bushels, up 75 million from the revised 2021/22 forecast.

    The 2022/23 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.40 per bushel compared with $13.25 per bushel in 2021/22. Soybean meal prices are forecast down $20 per short ton from 2021/22 to $400 per short ton and soybean oil prices are forecast down 5 cents to average 70 cents per pound, as oilseed and product supplies rebound in foreign markets.

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    Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 647.1 million tons, rising 50.3 million from last marketing year when droughts impacted South American soybean production and the Canadian canola crop. Global soybean production is forecast up 45.3 million tons to 394.7 million, with Brazil accounting for over half of the increase, up 24 million tons to a record 149 million. Argentina’s soybean crop is expected to reach 51 million tons and Paraguay 10 million. Partly offsetting higher global soybean and canola production is lower oilseed production for Ukraine.

    Global protein meal consumption is expected to grow 3 percent in 2022/23, recovering from slow growth in the past two marketing years. Nearly half of the gains are in China where soybean crush is forecast to increase 6 million tons from 2021/22 to 95 million.

    Exportable supplies of oilseed meals and oils are expected to recover, with higher 2022/23 crush for Canada and South America, which offset declines in sunflower products out of Ukraine. Further, palm oil exports are expected to increase for Indonesia after slower-than-normal shipments and export restrictions in the prior marketing year.

    Global 2022/23 soybean exports are expected to increase 9 percent to 170.0 million tons after last year’s drought-related declines in South America. China accounts for about half of the trade growth, with 2022/23 imports rising 7 million tons to 99 million. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 99.6 million tons, up 14.4 million, with most of the increase in Brazil, Argentina, and the United States.

    Other notable soybean changes include back year revisions to China’s domestic consumption growth to better reflect per capita consumption and population growth. Soybean imports for China in 2021/22 are raised 1 million tons to 92 million. Global 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered with lower Chinese stocks, a reduction in Argentina’s soybean production, and lower U.S. stocks.

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