Marketing year 2021/22 (October to September) Indonesia palm oil exports are lowered 3.0 million tons this month, down to a 12-year low of 25.0 million tons. The forecast is reduced on Indonesia’s slow export pace through the first 6 months of MY 2021/22 and various palm oil export policies in effect since November 2021. Although the Government of Indonesia implemented a palm oil export ban on April 28, 2022, industry sources expect it to be short-lived and therefore have a limited impact on trade.
Cumulative shipments from October 2021 to March 2022 declined over 30 percent compared to the same period in MY 2020/21. Exports plunged after export taxes increased in November 2021. This reduced pace is expected to continue into May as Indonesia continues its restrictive export policies.
A stronger export pace is anticipated for the remainder of the marketing year. The current slow pace of exports is leading to a build-up of supplies that will need to be cleared from storage facilities to accommodate future production.
Kazakhstan Soybeans and Soybean Oil Added to the USDA Database
Soybeans and soybean oil have been added to the USDA database for Kazakhstan starting in marketing year 2006/07. In 2022/23, Kazakhstan is forecast to produce more than 200,000 tons of soybeans for the tenth consecutive year. Domestic production, along with imports from Russia, is predominantly crushed for meal and oil. About 7-15 percent of production is exported each year, mostly to Uzbekistan, China, and Sweden.
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Soybean meal is used in livestock and poultry feed and is the most abundantly consumed protein meal in Kazakhstan, accounting for more than half of non-food consumption on a soy-meal-equivalent basis since 2013/14. In addition to being consumed domestically, about 10-20 percent of production is exported each year to nearby markets like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and the European Union.
While production of soybean meal has grown steadily over the past 20 years, imports from Russia and Argentina have jumped over the past decade to help meet growing feed demand. Kazakhstan soybean meal was already included in the USDA database but has been adjusted this month to a Sep-Aug marketing year (previously Jan-Dec) to match the growing season of the newly added soybeans.
Unlike with protein meal, soybean oil is far from the most heavily consumed vegetable oil. Sunflowerseed oil is the predominant oil for food, accounting for about 80 percent of consumption in a typical year. However, soybean oil consumption has been growing steadily, overtaking rapeseed oil in 2015/16 as the second-most consumed edible oil. Imports of soybean oil are minimal, and Kazakhstan has exported about a quarter of soybean oil production over the past decade, predominantly to Uzbekistan.