Global Markets: Grains – Consumption Exceeds Production, Stocks Tighten

    Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

    Global corn production is forecast down, driven primarily by a cut in Ukraine and the United States, but China and the European Union are expected to have smaller crops as well. However, if realized, Argentina and Brazil will again have record production. Global trade falls in the absence of Ukraine’s exportable supplies. For global consumption, both feed and non-feed uses are expected to decline very modestly. Ending stocks are forecast down, led by reductions in China and the United States.

    Global wheat production is forecast down with smaller crops in Ukraine, Australia, Morocco, Argentina, the European Union, and China. Overall consumption is down with lower feed and residual use only partially offset by higher Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use. Feed use is expected lower, especially in Australia, China, and the European Union due to smaller domestic crops.

    Food consumption continues to rise due to population growth. Global ending stocks are forecast down, with smaller carryout in China, India, and most major exporters. Trade is forecast at a record with stronger imports across Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Western Hemisphere.

    Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger crops in South and Southeast Asia, including India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to rise, also a record, primarily in India, China, and Sub- Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast higher with India expected to remain the top exporter, but exports are also up significantly for Thailand and Pakistan.

    China will be the top importer, driven by record consumption. Global stocks are down to a three-year low as consumption grows faster than production and China continues to auction its large government stockpile.

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