Arkansas Rice: Prevented Planting Decisions

    Photo: Clay Gibson, University of Arkansas

    With heavy rainfall this week and more expected over the weekend, discussions surrounding running into prevented planting have started to pick up.  While for rice we still have until May 25, corn is only April 25 for much of the state.  It is a good time to be thinking about contingency plans should we start running into these dates with ground still not planted.

    One important note is that, regardless of commodity, if a producer collects a prevented planting payment and does not plant a second crop, no yield history is counted for that year and the Actual Production History (APH) yield for that unit is not affected for the following year.

    HOWEVER, if a 35% prevented planting payment is collected and a second crop planted, the yield history on any prevented planting acres for the following year will be calculated as 60% of the existing APH yield for that unit.  OR you can forego the prevented planting payment altogether and instead switch the indemnity to a second crop and plant immediately.

    This goes for all commodities.  Keep the short-term and long-term pros and cons in mind when making these decisions.  Table 4 below contains prevented planting dates for major row crops.

    Table 4.  Crop insurance planting dates, Arkansas.

     

    Corn

    Rice

    Soybean

    Full Season

    Soybean

    Double Crop

    Cotton

    Earliest Planting Date March 11 April 1 April 16 April 16
    Final Planting Date April 25

    May 1*

    May 25 June 15 June 25 May 20†

    May 25

    End of Late Planting Period May 10

    May 16*

    June 9 July 10 July 15 June 4†

    June 9

    * Corn:  May 1 is the final planting date for Clay, Craighead, Greene, Independence, Jackson, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett, and Randolph Counties while May 16 is the end of the late planting period for these counties.  All other counties are the April 25 and May 10 dates.

    † Cotton:  May 20 is the final planting date for Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene, Independence, Jackson, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett, Randolph, St. Francis, and Woodruff Counties while June 4 is the end of the late planting period for these counties.  All other counties are the May 25 and June 9 dates.

    Numbers Game

    Fun with numbers as the commodity debate continues along with planting progress delays.  Table 5 uses current UA System Division of Agriculture operating cost estimates, a lower estimate where some producers captured lower fertilizer and fuel prices, and a producer share of 75%.  This is a starting point, knowing that every operation has different input costs and rent structures.

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    Cotton is king in this table, though it is not as easy of a commodity to rotate to.  At current prices, corn looks good whether at the lower or higher operating cost level.  Soybean continues to look good, but lags behind corn at higher input costs.

    Rice in general has a tougher road unless some inputs were locked in at lower levels.  Using different yields will certainly also change the picture, as will different commodity prices as some have priced portions of their crops along the way meaning the listed prices may not capture the whole-farm economics.

    Table 5.  Estimated Returns and Break-even Yields at Selected Operating Cost Levels.

    Crop

    Operating Cost

    Producer Share

    Yield

    Price

    Returns Over Operating Costs

    Break-even Yield

    Rice (Hybrid) $883.16 75% 190 $7.25 $149.97 163
    Rice (Hybrid) $990.27 75% 190 $7.25 $42.86 183
    Rice (Variety) $800.62 75% 170 $7.25 $123.76 148
    Rice (Variety) $907.73 75% 170 $7.25 $16.65 167
    Soybean $460.68 75% 55 $15.01 $158.48 41
    Soybean $492.16 75% 55 $15.01 $127.00 44
    Corn $689.28 75% 190 $7.48 $280.53 140
    Corn $887.60 75% 190 $7.48 $178.30 159
    Cotton $689.28 75% 1200 $1.22 $408.72 754
    Cotton $752.58 75% 1200 $1.22 $345.42 823

    As mentioned, individual farm returns will be highly influence by the timing of key input purchases, particularly fuel and fertilizer, rental terms, and commodity marketing decision.  We encourage producers to evaluate comparative crop returns using their historical yields, 2022 input costs, and other factors unique to their operation.

    Updated 2022 Cost of Production Estimates can be found on the University of Arkansas’ Cooperative Extension Service website at this link: 2022 Crop Production Budgets.  Budgets for the major row crops are available for download in Microsoft Excel format.




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