Weather

    WASDE Wheat: Lower Domestic Use, Reduced Exports

    Photo: Texas AgriLife Extension

    The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 100 million. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for the third quarter that was partially offset by an upward revision to this category in the second quarter.

    Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 785 million as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets and exports would be the lowest since 2015/16. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22. This would be the highest SAFP since 2012/13.

    The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for slightly higher supplies, increased consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 0.7 million tons to 1,069.5 million on a combination of higher beginning stocks for Pakistan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia and higher production for Pakistan and Argentina more than offsetting lower EU production.

    Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India. Based on greater offtake from government stocks to food distribution programs, India’s FSI is raised 4.4 million tons to a record 100.9 million.

    Grain News on AgFax


    Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 3.0 million tons to 200.1 million as lower exports by the EU, Ukraine, the United States, and Kazakhstan are not completely offset by higher exports by Russia, Brazil, and Argentina. EU exports are reduced 3.5 million tons to 34.0 million on a lower-than-expected pace. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 33.0 million as it continues to export at competitive prices.

    Ukraine’s exports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million as its Black Sea ports remain closed since the invasion by Russia in February. The majority of Ukraine’s exports have already been shipped with limited additional amounts expected for the remainder of 2021/22. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million with India accounting for most of the reduction that is only partially offset by higher EU stocks. Global stocks are projected at a 5-year low.

    Full report.




    The Latest


    Send press releases to Ernst@Agfax.com.

    View All Events


    Send press releases to Ernst@Agfax.com.

    View All Events

    Weather