U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include increased exports and seed use, and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia.
Seed use is raised in line with record soybean plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Soybean oil changes include increased exports and lower ending stocks.
Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. A lower soybean meal export forecast is offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance.
The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $13.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $420 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents.
The 2021/22 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million tons to 350.7 million on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean crush is lowered for Paraguay on lower supplies and reduced for China on the current pace to date.
China’s soybean imports are also lowered 3 million tons to 91 million. Lower soybean exports for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by higher U.S. shipments. Global soybean stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 89.6 million mainly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks.
Another notable oilseed change this month includes lower sunflower seed crush for Ukraine, leading to lower meal and oil supplies for major markets like India, China, the EU, and Turkey. Partly offsetting these declines are higher palm and rapeseed oil imports for China, higher soybean oil imports for India, higher soybean meal imports for Turkey, and higher soybean imports for the EU.