WASDE Coarse Grains: Offsetting Changes to Feed, Residual Use, and Corn for Ethanol

    Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

    This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.625 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter.

    Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.

    With offsetting use changes, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is raised 15 cents to $5.80 per bushel based on observed prices to date.

    Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.6 million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU.

    For Brazil, production is raised reflecting increased area; yield expectations are essentially unchanged this month as much of the second crop will enter the critical phase of development during April. Indonesia corn production is higher as greater area more than offsets a slight reduction to yield.

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    Corn production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting increases for Germany, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Foreign barley production is lower with reductions for the EU and Tunisia.

    Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, with increases for Brazil, Canada, and India. Corn imports are lowered for China, Chile, and Bangladesh, but raised for Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Serbia, the EU, and Indonesia that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.

    Global corn ending stocks, at 305.5 million tons, are up 4.5 million from last month.

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