The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Food use is lowered 3 million bushels to 959 million with durum accounting for the entire reduction. This is primarily based on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report.
Seed use is revised downward 2 million bushels to 64 million on the incorporation of NASS seed use data for the first two quarters of the marketing year. Seed use is also revised for the previous two years with updated NASS data.
Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 810 million on slowing export sales and shipments with reductions for Hard Red Winter and White. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 20 million bushels to 648 million but are still 23 percent lower than last year.
The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.15 per bushel to $7.30 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22. This would be the highest SAFP since 2012/13.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for lower supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are projected falling by 1.1 million tons to 1,066.3 million as reduced production more than offsets higher beginning stocks.
The majority of production decreases are in the Middle East, where both Iraq and Syria are reduced due to the prolonged dry conditions. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 0.6 million tons to 788.1 million on higher feed and residual use more than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial use.
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The largest feed and residual use changes are for Canada and China. Canada is raised 1.7 million to 4.5 million as the Statistics Canada December 31 stocks report indicated greater August-December disappearance than previously expected. China is lowered 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million as domestic wheat prices are no longer at a discount to corn and wheat auctions have not been as active this year.
Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 2.3 million tons to 206.7 million, primarily on higher exports by India and Argentina. India’s exports are increased to 7.0 million tons, which would be a record – exceeding 2012/13 exports. India’s export pace continues to be robust, and its prices are competitive in Asian markets. Argentina’s exports are raised 0.5 million tons to a record 14.0 million on an early strong pace.
Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 1.7 million tons to 278.2 million with reductions for Canada and India partially offset by increases by the United States and Ukraine. Global stocks are now projected at a 5-year low.