This month’s 2021/22 U.S. soybean outlook is for increased soybean crush and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is forecast at 2.215 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month on favorable crush margins and improving prospects for soybean meal exports.
Soybean meal exports are reduced for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay as drought-reduced crops limit crush prospects. With soybean exports unchanged, ending stocks are reduced 25 million bushels to 325 million.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.00 per bushel, up 40 cents from last month partly reflecting the impact of drought in South America. The soybean meal price is forecast at $410.00 per short ton, up 35 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 1 cent to 66.0 cents per pound.
Global 2021/22 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports, and stocks.
Global soybean production is reduced 8.7 million tons to 363.9 million on drought in South America. Brazil’s soybean crop is lowered 5 million tons to 134 million, Paraguay is lowered 2.2 million to 6.3 million, and Argentina is reduced 1.5 million to 45 million.
Exports and crush are lowered in all three countries. Lower supplies and higher prices reduce global meal demand, particularly for China where soybean crush and imports are lowered 3 million tons to 94 and 97 million, respectively.
Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.4 million tons to 92.8 million.
Another notable oilseed change includes a 1.3-million-ton increase to 10.8 million for Indian rapeseed production on a faster-than-expected planting pace and higher yields.