Rice Market Update: Farmers Still Indecisive on 2022 Planting Intentions

    The market is seeming to find a nice balance as it approaches the “deadline” for planting intentions. Stable domestic business coupled with continued Haitian demand is keeping the mills running and the cash prices afloat.

    Much of this stability, while good for the market, can be attributed to the expectation of another short crop—this one likely more than 10% off from last year’s crop, which was 15% off from the year before. Prices would likely be much softer if there were plans for a larger plant.

    Prices in Texas remain firm, and have bumped to $15-$15.10/cwt. Louisiana remains at $13.90, while Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri all remain at $14.75/cwt. Talk of new crop pricing is working its way into most conversations, but it is still a bit premature to make any firm decisions or quotations as of yet. Only a few more weeks though, and seed sales will tell the story of the coming year.

    The FAO Rice Price index fell by 1.6% in December, and then rebounded 3.1% in January, ending at 101.4. This is the highest indexed price in seven months, but still 11% below the indexed price from one year ago.

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    The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows gross sales in the amount of 157,200 mt, the lion’s share of which was long grain rough sales totaling 76,900 tons and medium/shot grain milled totaling 68,700 tons. Mexico (44,600 tons), Nicaragua (30,000 tons) and El Salvador (2,300 tons) bought the long grain rough.

    Long Grain Brown had a good week too, with the United Kingdom purchasing 10,000 tons along with Canada’s 200 tons. Long grain milled was only 1,300 tons sold to Canada and Mexico. Medium/short grain sales were dominated by Japan’s 49,000 ton purchase, along with South Korea’s 18,100 tons, Canada’s smaller purchase.

    Exports were a solid 67,700 tons, with half of it being rough rice to Mexico. Haiti also received 15,300 tons of long grain milled. Japan took 13,400 tons of medium grain as well.

    The futures market shows average daily volume of 936, a 29% increase from last week. Open Interest is up to 8,820, a 6% increase from last week.

    Full report.

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