The cotton market is keeping a wary eye on certain geo-political events as they unfold this week. Of course, Russia’s possible invasion of Ukraine is the most disturbing, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday. Given that war is generally negative to all aspects of trading and markets, it will be interesting to see how the Federal Reserve views its possibility, as well as inflation.
From last week’s export sales data we note that cumulative sales for 2021/22 have reached 11.267 million bales, which is down from last year’s pace of 2.16 million bales, but is up on the five-year average of 11.035 million.
The CFTC released its weekly Commitments of Traders report on Friday, and the information showed that managed-money funds were net buyers of 844 contracts. They increased net-long position to 77,608 contracts.
For Monday, close-in support for March cotton is 121.00 cents and 120.40 cents, while resistance stands at 124.78 cents and 125.25 cents. The estimated morning volume is 8,412 contracts.