DTN Grain Midday: Futures All Red

    The Port of Rosedale - Rosedale, Mississippi - Mississippi River ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents lower, beans are 20 to 21 cents lower and wheat is 13 to 17 cents lower.


    Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade fading back from the $6.00 area and easing below nearby support levels with flat spread action Thursday. On the USDA report Wednesday, production edged slightly higher to 15.115 billion bushels with carryout rising to 1.540 billion bushels from 1.493 billion last month, with stocks at 11.624 billion versus 11.602 billion inspected.

    Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand and production expected to slide further into midmonth. Basis should remain range bound to slightly weaker short term with warmer midweek weather to help movement. Trade will continue watching South American weather more as we get closer to the key weather time frames on new crop as well as soybean progress for the timing of double crop planting.

    Weekly export sales remain soft at 457,700 metric tons. On the March contract we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $6.00, which we are fading from at midday then the lower Bollinger Band at $5.86 as further support.


    Soybean trade is 20 to 21 cents lower at midday Thursday with trade failing to hold the $14.00 area again with heat lingering for a few more days before wetter weather moves in and no major surprises on the report. Meal is $10.00 to $11.00 lower and oil is 0.30 cent to 0.40 cent lower. The report showed production at 4.435 billion bushels, up slightly from last month, with domestic carryout at 350 million bushels up from 340 mb last month, and stocks at 3.149 billion vs. 2.947 billion expected. Argentina and Brazil saw combined cuts of 8.0 million metric tons.

    Basis remains mostly flat short term with the export wire quiet Thursday. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil going forward. Weekly export sales were mixed at 735,600 metric tons old crop, 183,000 mt new, with meal at 104,200 mt old, -700 mt new, and oil at -2,900 mt old and -100 mt new. On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $14.15 which we scored Friday, and the 20-day well below the market at $13.56 as support.


    Wheat trade is 13 to 17 cents lower at midday with Chicago leading the weak action at midday and buying still soft short term, but support levels still intact. The dollar has faded back from the highs with little surprise in recent Fed statements breaking back below 95 points on the index. Weather in the Plains looks drier with a little snow cover out of the last system while temps continue to fluctuate keeping stress intact, with other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment.

    On the report, stocks were at 1.390 billion bushels versus 1.421 expected with carryout at 628 million versus 583 last month and winter wheat acres at 34.397 million versus 34.255 expected. Spring wheat was firmer versus Chicago moving the premium to 1.62 on the March, with KC at a 21-cent premium in weaker action as well. Weekly export sales were range bound at 264,400 metric tons. KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $7.52 with the 20-day at $8.06 still well above the market.


    The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 190 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious metals are weaker with gold off $10.00.

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