DTN Fertilizer Trends: Prices Continue to Rise, but at Slower Pace

    Liquid fertilizer containers. Photo: ©Debra L Ferguson

    It’s a new year, but the same story of fertilizer prices moving higher.

    Average retail fertilizer prices continued to rise the first week of January 2022. However, the percentages by which prices climbed were much lower than they have been in recent months.

    Only one fertilizer was up a substantial amount. DTN designates a sizeable move as anything 5% or more.

    Leading the way higher was 10-34-0, which was up 5% from a month prior. The starter fertilizer’s average price was $795 per ton.

    The remaining seven fertilizers had just slight price increases compared to the prior month. DAP had an average price of $863/ton, MAP $931/ton, potash $807/ton, urea $913/ton (all-time high), anhydrous $1,430/ton (all-time high), UAN28 $584/ton (all-time high) and UAN32 $679/ton (all-time high).

    On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.99/lb.N, anhydrous $0.87/lb.N, UAN28 $1.04/lb.N and UAN32 $1.06/lb.N.

    In a post titled “Fertilizer Output in China Impacted by Air Pollution Curbs” from the Farm Policy News website from the University of Illinois Extension (here) author Keith Good reports China’s urea plants are getting caught up in Beijing’s drive to ensure blue skies for the upcoming Winter Olympics. This plan includes ordering factory shutdowns to curb air pollution.

    More urea factories could be asked to suspend or cut output to limit air pollution before the start of the games. This move comes on the heels of the nation curbing fertilizer exports since late last year to help protect domestic supplies.

    Good also reported Yara announced earlier this week they will wind down purchases of potash from Belarus by April 1 as international sanctions made it impossible to continue trade.

    “Yara estimates that it buys 10%-15% of the annual output of state-owned Belaruskali, one of the world’s largest producers of potash,” Good wrote.

    Global potash prices could increase after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Belarus Potash Company (BPC). Farmers and consumers already face rocketing costs and a global economy navigating rising food inflation, he added.

    See more on this situation and other global fertilizer news in the monthly DTN Fertilizer Outlook here.

    Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly, with several having well over 100% price increases.

    10-34-0 is now 71% more expensive, MAP is 72% higher, DAP is 79% more expensive, potash is 119% higher, urea is 148% more expensive, UAN32 is 171% higher, UAN28 179% is more expensive and anhydrous is 204% higher compared to last year.

    DTN surveys more than 300 retailers, gathering roughly 1,700 fertilizer price bids, to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index each week. In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here.

    Purdue University Extension recently released it 2022 Crop Cost and Return guide, which shows significantly higher cost estimates for fertilizer. You can read it here.

    The recent DTN Global Fertilizer Outlook series focused attention to what the world expectation could be in 2022. This series examined the supply and demand of nutrients globally as well as what direction fertilizer prices could go in the New Year.

    • Read the nitrogen outlook here.
    • Read the phosphorus outlook here.
    • Read the potash outlook here.
    DRY
    Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
    Jan 4-8 2021 482 543 369 368
    Feb 1-5 2021 554 601 389 429
    Mar 1-5 2021 609 673 416 474
    Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 618 697 429 502
    Apr 26-30 2021 629 703 433 513
    May 24-28 2021 652 709 443 523
    Jun 21-25 2021 670 720 469 541
    Jul 19-23 2021 695 750 543 553
    Aug 16-20 2021 695 755 564 556
    Sep 13-17 2021 702 776 598 572
    Oct 11-15 2021 798 860 710 719
    Nov 8-12 2021 821 906 762 832
    Dec 6-10 2021 840 919 778 887
    Jan 3-7 2022 863 931 807 913
    LIQUID
    Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
    Jan 4-8 2021 464 470 209 251
    Feb 1-5 2021 502 507 239 272
    Mar 1-5 2021 560 560 254 304
    Mar 29-Apr 2 2021 599 685 340 377
    Apr 26-30 2021 613 710 350 391
    May 24-28 2021 619 719 361 407
    Jun 21-25 2021 625 724 366 420
    Jul 19-23 2021 632 736 365 419
    Aug 16-20 2021 631 743 369 420
    Sep 13-17 2021 632 762 381 428
    Oct 11-15 2021 654 873 442 488
    Nov 8-12 2021 719 1162 566 614
    Dec 6-10 2021 756 1372 577 661
    Jan 3-7 2022 795 1430 584 679

    Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

    Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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