The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, lower domestic use, decreased exports, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on a lower production estimate and decreased imports.
All rice 2021/22 production is estimated at 191.8 million cwt, down 2.0 million from the previous estimate. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,709 pounds per acre, down 47 pounds from the prior estimate but still a record. Imports are lowered 2.5 million cwt to 31.0 million with reductions in both long-grain and medium- and short-grain on a continued sluggish pace.
All rice domestic and residual use is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 145.5 million on reduced production and imports. Exports are lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 88.0 million; the decline is all for medium- and short-grain on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are 33.0 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month and down 24 percent from last year.
The projected 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.30 per cwt to $15.10 with increases for both the long-grain and medium-and short grain prices.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for smaller supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally higher trade, and lower stocks. Rice supplies are reduced 1.4 million tons to 696.4 million, primarily on lower beginning stocks for Sri Lanka and Thailand and decreased production for Mali and Sri Lanka.
Global 2021/22 consumption is lowered 0.6 million tons to 510.3 million but remains a record. World trade is marginally higher at 49.9 million as higher exports by India, Vietnam, and China more than offset reductions for Brazil and Paraguay. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 0.7 million tons to 186.1 million, primarily on reductions for Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand.