WASDE Oilseeds: Increased U.S. Production, Ending Stocks

    Mature soybean pods ready for harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

    U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is estimated at 130.6 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month. Larger soybean, canola, sunflowerseed, and peanut crops are partly offset with lower cottonseed production.

    Soybean production is estimated at 4.44 billion bushels, up 10 million with gains for Iowa and Indiana. Harvested area is estimated at 86.3 million acres, down slightly from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels. Soybean supplies are raised 11 million bushels on higher production and slightly higher beginning stocks. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels.

    The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $12.60 per bushel, up 50 cents, reflecting tighter global soybean stocks and lower production forecasts for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. The soybean meal price is projected at $375 per short ton, up 45 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound.

    The 2021/22 global soybean outlook includes lower production, crush, exports, and stocks. Foreign soybean production is lowered 9.5 million tons on reduced crops for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay.

    Brazil’s soybean crop is lowered 5 million tons to 139 million, reflecting dry weather conditions in December and early January in southern Brazil. Argentina’s crop is reduced 3 million tons to 46.5 million on both a lower area and yield, resulting in lower crush and exports of meal and oil. Paraguay’s crop is lowered 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million leading to lower exports mainly to neighboring countries.

    Global soybean stocks are reduced 6.8 million tons to 95.2 million on lower stocks for Brazil and Argentina.

    Other notable oilseed changes include lower palm oil production for Malaysia and higher rapeseed production for India on a faster-than-expected planting pace.

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