U.S. 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are projected lower this month with lower production and a slight increase in domestic consumption more than offsetting lower exports. Production is 660,000 bales lower at 17.6 million bales—largely due to revised Texas yields—and U.S. mill use is 50,000 bales higher, at 2.55 million bales, based on faster than expected gains through November.
Exports are reduced with a lower U.S. crop, continuing logistical issues in the United States and elsewhere, and a decline in projected world trade. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 15.0 million, and 2021/22 ending stocks are 200,000 bales lower relative to last month, at 3.2 million bales or 18 percent of use.
The projected upland season-average price received by U.S. farmers is unchanged this month, at 90 cents per pound.
Changes in the global 2021/22 balance sheet are relatively small this month, led by a 608,000-bale reduction in world production. Projected world production is reduced as lower U.S. production and a 500,000-bale decline in India’s crop more than offsets increases for China, Australia, and Pakistan.
The 2021/22 world cotton trade forecast is 385,000 bales lower this month. A 500,000-bale decline in China’s expected imports more than offsets a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan, and smaller changes elsewhere. Exports are projected lower for the United States and Burkina Faso, but higher for Australia and smaller Franc Zone exporters.
The 2021/22 global consumption forecast is virtually unchanged as a 500,000-bale decline in China’s cotton use is offset by gains for India, Mexico, and Pakistan.
Global ending stocks for 2021/22 are down 726,000 bales this month, at 85.0 million bales, 3.4 million bales lower than in 2020/21.