WASDE Coarse Grains: Higher U.S. Production, Ending Stocks

    Harvested corn pouring into grain truck. Photo: University of Tennessee

    This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, greater food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 15.115 billion bushels, up 53 million on a 0.3-million acre increase in harvested area.

    Total corn use is virtually unchanged at 14.835 billion. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels to 2.425 billion, reflecting expectations of increased competition from other exporters. FSI use is raised 80 million bushels.

    Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels to 5.325 billion, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of December. The projected amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose is raised 5 million bushels.

    Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September- November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. With use essentially unchanged and supply rising, corn stocks are raised 47 million bushels.

    The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

    Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 1.6 million tons lower to 1,500.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, consumption, and stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for Brazil, Argentina, Kenya, Mexico, the EU, and Paraguay that are partially offset by an increase for Ukraine.

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    For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas, although with an increase in late-planted corn area for much of the crop the critical phase of the growing season lies in the months ahead. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.

    Other major coarse grain production changes include updated barley, sorghum, and millet production for China based on the latest information from the Rural Statistical Yearbook.

    Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2021/22 include greater corn exports for Ukraine, Pakistan, and Tanzania with a reduction for Paraguay. For 2020/21, Argentina and Brazil’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2021 are raised based on observed shipments to date.

    For 2021/22, corn imports are raised for Kenya, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, but lowered for Bangladesh. Barley imports are raised for Iran but lowered for Saudi Arabia.

    Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting reductions for Brazil, Argentina, and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 303.1 million tons, are down 2.5 million.

    Full report.




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