WASDE Rice: Reduced Domestic Supplies, Slightly Lower Exports

    Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice is for reduced supplies, unchanged domestic use, slightly lower exports, and fractionally lower ending stocks compared with last month. The import forecast is reduced 1.5 million cwt to 33.5 million, based on a slow pace of shipments through October and expectations of continued high freight costs and limited container availability the rest of 2021/22.

    In addition, the export forecast is reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 89.0 million, all for medium- and short-grain rice, based on shipment pace and outstanding sales to-date. U.S. exports are limited by high prices and smaller U.S. supplies.

    Milled rice exports are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 55.0 million, which would be the lowest milled rice exports since 1973/74. Ending stocks are forecast fractionally lower to 34.5 million cwt.

    The season-average farm price forecast for all rice is unchanged this month at $14.80 per cwt, as an increase to the long-grain price forecast offsets a decrease in the medium- and short-grain price.

    The 2021/22 global outlook is for lower supplies, lower consumption, fractionally larger trade, and slightly reduced ending stocks compared with last month. Supplies are lowered 1.5 million tons to 697.7 million for 2021/22, mostly on smaller crop forecasts for Bangladesh, Thailand, and Peru.

    The global trade forecast is fractionally larger at 49.7 million tons, primarily due to an increase in exports for Burma. Global 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 1.1 million tons to 186.8 million.

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