The cotton market is lower Monday as traders fear the bulk of the 2021 harvest is at hand. Last week the pace of gathering was reported at some 55%, but with essentially decent weather prevailing over the Cotton Belt this past week, fields are quickly being clipped. Historically, Thanksgiving has been the odds-on time for a seasonal low. USDA will issue their numbers at 4 p.m. EST Monday afternoon.
On Monday, President Biden and China’s President Xi will hold a multi-hour conference call via Zoom. Among the key issues to be discussed will be tariffs, Taiwan, COVID and the global chain crisis.
Spot December options expired last Friday and will likely have a numerical effect on total open interest. The ICE Exchange will update those changes Monday.
From last Thursday’s weekly export sales data we note cumulative sales for 2021/22 have reached 8.637 million bales, which is down from 9.102 million a year ago, but is higher than the five-year average of 8.516 million. Sales have reached 59.0% of the USDA’s forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 59.6%.
For Monday, close-in support for December cotton is 116.20 cents and 115.00 cents, while resistance stands at 119.20 cents and 120.10 cents. The estimated morning volume is 10,988 contracts.