WASDE Rice: Higher Domestic Use, Lower Exports

    Rice harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are raised as NASS increased rice production by 3.3 million cwt to 193.8 million, all on higher yields. The all rice yield is forecast at a record 7,756 pounds per acre, up 131 pounds from the previous forecast. Record yields are forecast for Arkansas, California, Mississippi, and Missouri.

    This increase in supply is partially offset by a reduction in imports, all long-grain, as monthly Census imports continue to run below last year’s pace. All rice imports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million but remain above last year. Domestic and residual use is raised 1.5 million cwt to 147.5 million on increased supplies. Exports are reduced by 1.0 million cwt to 90.0 million, all for long-grain on a weaker-than-expected pace of sales and shipments.

    Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are raised 1.8 million cwt to 35.0 million but are still down 20 percent from last year. The projected 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $14.80 per cwt and up from a revised $14.00 for 2020/21.

    The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, reduced consumption, minimally lower trade, and increased stocks. Rice supplies are raised 3.3 million tons to 699.2 million, primarily on increased beginning stocks for India and higher production for several countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

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    Global 2021/22 consumption is lowered 1.0 million tons to 511.3 million but remains a record as a reduction for India is partially offset by increases for several Sub Saharan Africa countries.

    World trade is fractionally lower at 49.7 million as higher exports by India are more than offset by reductions for China, Burma, and the EU. India’s exports are raised 0.5 million tons to 19.0 million, which is the second highest on record, following a revised 20.2 million for 2020/21.

    Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 4.3 million tons to a record 187.9 million, primarily on increases for China and India, which account for 60 and 20 percent of global stocks, respectively.

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