This month’s 2021/22 U.S. cotton estimates are largely unchanged from October. The U.S. production forecast is slightly higher, at 18.2 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are 200,000 bales higher at 3.4 million—19 percent of use—and 250,000 above the previous year.
The projected marketing-year average price received by upland producers is unchanged this month at 90 cents per pound, a 36 percent year-to-year increase.
The global cotton balance sheet for 2021/22 includes higher production and consumption, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks this month are also lower, by 1 million bales, due to higher estimated consumption in earlier years for India, Pakistan, and Mexico. Their projected use in the current year is also higher this month, and total global consumption is up 700,000 bales.
The world production forecast is 1.5 million bales higher as gains for Brazil, Australia, Pakistan, and the United States more than offset a 200,000-bale decline in Greece following unusually heavy October rainfall.
World ending stocks are projected at 86.9 million bales, 200,000 bales lower than in October, and 2.4 million bales lower than in 2020/21.