USDA Numbers Neutral for Corn, Wheat, Bullish for Soybeans – DTN

    Corn harvest. Photo: Kostic Dusan, 123rf

    USDA on Tuesday released its November Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports.

    For the 2021-22 corn crop, USDA bumped up the yield by .5 bushels per acre (bpa) to 177 bpa. That increased production slightly to 15.062 billion bushels (bb), a 43 million bushel (mb) increase from the October report.

    USDA pegged soybean production at 4.42 bb, the highest in three years. The agency lowered the national average yield by 0.3 bpa while leaving harvested acreage unchanged. Soybean ending stocks for 2021-22 climbed to 340 mb, within the range of pre-report estimates.

    According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s U.S. estimates were neutral for corn and wheat and bullish for soybeans. Hultman pegged the world ending stocks estimates as bearish for corn and bullish for soybeans and wheat.

    You can also access the full reports here:

    CORN

    For the 2021-22 corn crop, USDA bumped up the yield by .5 bpa to 177 bpa, which is a record high. That increased production slightly to 15.062 bb, a 43 mb increase from the October report.

    On the demand side, USDA increased ethanol use by 50 mb to 5.25 bb That pushed up total domestic use to 12.33 bb. USDA held pat with export demand at 2.5 bb.

    The increase in production of 43 mb, but higher use of 50 mb, led USDA to lower 2021-22 ending stocks by 7 mb to 1.493 bb.

    The average farmgate price was $5.45 a bushel, holding pat the same as October.

    Globally, USDA raised the 2021-22 ending stocks by 2.68 million metric tons (mmt) to 304.42 mmt. USDA increased Argentina’s production by 1.5 mmt to 54.50 mmt. Brazil’s production held pat at 118 mmt. USDA also increased the carryover from old-crop 2020-21 corn by 1.88 mmt to 291.87 mmt.

    SOYBEANS

    USDA pegged soybean production at 4.42 bb. The agency lowered the national average yield by 0.3 bpa while leaving harvested acreage unchanged. The move negates previous forecasts for a record crop. Now, USDA is expecting the third largest crop in history. USDA says it anticipates lower yields in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas to account for most of the change in production.

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    Ending stocks for 2021-22 climbed 20 mb to 340 mb, within the range of pre-report estimates. The agency left beginning stocks unchanged, which resulted in lower supplies because of the reduction in production. On the demand side, USDA lowered exports by 40 mb, left crush and residual use unchanged and lowered seed use by 2 mb.

    The national average farm-gate price dropped 25 cents to $12.10 per bushel.

    USDA left old-crop (2020-21) ending stocks unchanged at 256 mb.

    Globally, ending stocks for 2021-22 declined by less than 1 mmt to 103.78 mmt, below the range of pre-report expectations. USDA lowered global production by 1.1 mmt with smaller crops in the U.S. and Argentina partly offset by higher production India. USDA left Brazilian production unchanged at 144 mmt, while Argentina’s was cut by 1.5 mmt to 49.5 mmt. Global exports are expected to decline by 1 mmt, corresponding to a 1 mmt decline in China’s imports

    WHEAT

    USDA left 2021-22 U.S. wheat production untouched at an estimated 1.646 bb, based on a 44.3 bpa average yield.

    Domestic ending stocks were bumped up slightly from the October report to 583 mb, as predicted by pre-report analyst estimates. That remains a 14-year low for wheat ending stocks. On the supply and demand estimates, USDA bumped imports down by 10 mb, while also trimming exports by 15 mb. Food use was also dropped by 2 mb, which was partially offset by a 4 mb increase in seed use.

    USDA adjusted the average farmgate price for wheat up 20 cents, to $6.90 per bushel.

    Globally, new-crop ending stocks were trimmed to 275.8 mmt, down 1.38 mmt from October and on the low end of pre-report estimates. That was driven largely by lower beginning stocks and slightly lower global production. The biggest drop in production came from the EU (down 1 mmt to 138.4 mmt) and the UK (down 0.7 mmt to 14.3 mmt), which was largely offset by an increase in Russian production, which was bumped up 2 mmt to 74.5 mmt.

    LIVESTOCK

    Tuesday’s WASDE report revealed exciting news for beef producers, as beef product production, quarter-four price predictions and beef exports were all higher from last month’s report. Meanwhile, hog producers had a mixed bag to evaluate in Tuesday’s WASDE report, as they were pleased to see that the market is expected to yield higher product production than what was anticipated last month, but fourth-quarter prices fell significantly, and pork imports were noted higher along with fewer exports.

    Fourth-quarter beef product production grew by 55 million pounds from last month’s report, as processing speeds have been running faster to keep up with excellent domestic and international demand. The fourth-quarter price prediction for steers grew $1.00 stronger as steers are expected to average $128. Beef imports grew slightly as last month imports were estimated at 3,187 million pounds, but in Tuesday’s report they’ve grown by an additional 73 million pounds to total 3,260 million pounds.

    In lieu of the higher imports, beef exports also grew stronger. Last month beef exports were posted at 3,414 million pounds, but upon seeing Tuesday’s report, they’ve grown by an addition 41 million pounds to total 3,455 million pounds.

    Fourth-quarter pork product production grew by 10 million pounds from last month despite slower chain speeds, as carcass weights are on the rise. The fourth-quarter price prediction for barrows and gilts fell from $65.00 last month to $57.00, which is only $1.29 higher than the lowest performing first quarter of the year. Pork imports grew by 38 million pounds to total 1,145 million pounds, and pork exports fell by 6 million pounds to total 7,193 million pounds.

    **

    For an in-person discussion with DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman on the 2022 market season outlook, as well as thought-provoking sessions on the weather outlook, the global economy, technology, labor issues, ag policy and others, come be with DTN in Chicago Dec. 5-7 at the 2021 DTN Ag Summit. For registration information, go here: www.dtn.com/agsummit

    U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2021-22
    Nov Avg High Low Oct 2020-21
    Corn 15,062 15,040 15,222 14,778 15,019 14,111
    Soybeans 4,425 4,480 4,536 4,408 4,448 4,216
    U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2021-22 (WASDE)
    Nov Avg High Low Oct 2020-21
    Corn 177.0 176.8 178.9 174.5 176.5 171.4
    Soybeans 51.2 51.9 52.5 51.0 51.5 51.0
    U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2021-22
    Nov Avg High Low Oct 2020-21
    Corn 85.1 85.1 85.3 84.6 85.1 82.3
    Soybeans 86.4 86.4 86.7 85.9 86.4 82.6
    U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2021-22
    Nov Average High Low Oct
    Corn 1,494 1,482 1,675 1,320 1,500
    Soybeans 340 360 449 285 320
    Wheat 583 581 617 555 580
    WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2020-21
    Nov Avg High Low Oct
    Corn 291.9 290.6 292.0 290.0 290.0
    Soybeans 100.1 99.7 101.2 99.2 99.2
    Wheat 288.0 287.8 288.4 286.0 288.4
    WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2021-22
    Nov Avg. High Low Oct
    Corn 304.4 301.4 303.9 297.0 301.7
    Soybeans 103.8 105.7 106.9 104.6 104.6
    Wheat 275.8 277.1 282.0 274.0 277.2

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