The cotton market is trading higher overnight as swift Chinese buying occurred, along with anticipation of harvest progress numbers today. To the latter point, Mother Nature has West Texas dry in the one to five-day outlook, but the Delta and the Southeast are looking wetter and cooler. Longer-term, in the 8 to 14-day forecast has much of the Cotton Belt essentially below normal rainfall.
Monday afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the 2021 harvest progress. As of October 17, 28% of the U.S. crop had been harvested versus the five-year average of 34%. Traders are wanting to see if the current gathering pace can nudge closer to the five-year average.
Friday’s Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed-money funds liquidated some 6,000 long contracts of cotton last week, as of Tuesday, October 19. Their selling reduced their net long position to 81,427 contracts. At their peak they were roughly some 94,000-plus contracts net long.
For Monday, close-in support for December cotton is 107.90 cents and 107.00 cents, while resistance stands at 111.35 cents and 112.00 cents. The estimated morning volume is 5,862 contracts.