Corn is flat at midday after a mixed Tuesday morning; soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher and wheat is 1 to 7 cents higher.
Corn trade found light follow-through buying Tuesday morning, taking December to $5.37, 30 cents higher than the post-October WASDE low printed last Wednesday. But at midday, we are back to unchanged. Outside markets have stocks higher, crude higher and the dollar lower. The sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact market action since the WASDE last Tuesday may not continue to support a bounce-back rally, considering the corn carryover was higher and we remain in the middle of harvest.
However, what could support a further rally is the extremely good ethanol margins at this juncture. The weekly export inspections were okay at 976k tons Monday morning. The weekly crop progress was listed at 52% versus the 41% five-year average, so the rain slowed harvest a little more than some expected last week, but this week is pretty clear. USDA weekly crop ratings were unchanged at 60% good to excellent with fair ratings increasing by 1% with very poor going down 1% to 4%.
On the December contract, we have support at the 200-day moving average at $5.20 with the $5.06 3/4 low last Wednesday now a major support area. Chart resistance is at this morning’s high of $5.37, then the upper Bollinger Band at $5.46.
Soybean trade is 9 to 11 higher at midday with the post-WASDE recovery continuing. Meal is up around $5 and bean oil up 0.10 cent. November beans challenged the upside resistance at the 20-day moving average at $12.39, but we are back a dime off that high at midday. The weekly export inspections were very good at 2.3 million tons Monday, giving the market support Tuesday after the late recovery on Monday.
The weekly harvest progress was listed at 60% versus the 55% five-year average with good progress expected this week. The crop ratings were no longer provided due to the advance of harvest that ended the year at 59% good to excellent on the report last Monday. On the November soybean chart, support is at the recent low of $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the 20-day currently at $12.39.
Wheat trade is flat to 7 higher at midday with upward momentum appearing to have stalled. The weekly export inspections were poor yesterday at only 140k tons. The weekly crop progress has winter wheat plantings at 70% complete, 1% slower than the five-year average.
Wheat should find buying on pullbacks following the bigger picture trend to friendlier domestic and world balance sheets, but for Tuesday, profit taking by recent longs have stalled the strength with futures around a dime off our daily highs. KC December chart support is at the 20-day at $7.33 with resistance at the 10/4 high of $7.64.
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 140 points. The dollar index is 0.22 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.65. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle and cattle higher, hogs lower. Precious metals are higher with gold up $6.