Corn futures are 2 cents higher at midsession; soybean futures are 2 to 4 cents higher; wheat futures are mixed.
Corn futures are 2 cents higher at midday with a mixed 7-cent range overnight up to midday. There has been light follow-through buying after the nice turnaround on Thursday and Friday last week following the negative monthly WASDE numbers that came out last Tuesday which gave us pressure into Wednesday.
Farmer selling on strength during harvest is expected to limit the upside. Ethanol margins remain good with higher energy prices; crude oil was up another $1 this morning after moving above $81 last week. Export news needs to remain good to support the rally. The trade is expecting harvest progress to be 53% to 58% on the USDA Crop Progress report Monday afternoon.
The storm system that came across the country last week was friendly, but likely caused some very light yield losses and delays. This week looks open for good progress. On the December contract, we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.29 with the $5.06 3/4 low this past week first support then the September low at $4.97.
Soybean futures are up 2 to 4 cents at midday after mixed to mostly lower action overnight. Meal is mixed at midday with bean oil 60 points higher. Short-term chart momentum was up after the close last week, so it was no surprise to see some chart buying Monday morning, but it seems to be running out of steam.
The futures were already lower in the big picture for 2021 going into the October USDA WASDE report last Tuesday, so the trade acts like the slightly negative news was priced in. The market will want to see good demand news from now to the November WASDE if we are going to confirm some type of harvest low.
Grain News on AgFax
Beans dropped roughly $3 from the June high to the low on Wednesday with follow-through after the negative USDA report. A 40% correction would be up around $13 on nearby, with a one-third correction closer to $12.80. That area may be an upside chart target for technical longs without any real friendly weather info out of South America.
Fundamentally, we are two-thirds through harvest and the yields seen, along with USDA number, has the market not thinking a rally back up near the 2021 highs makes sense without some bigger weather issue in South America. On the November soybean chart, support is the recent low at $11.84 3/4 with resistance at the $12.48 20-day moving average.
Wheat futures are mixed at midday across the three exchanges. Wheat was mostly firmer last week following the friendly USDA numbers. KC was a nickel higher; Minneapolis was up over 20 cents with new highs for the move and Chicago was unchanged on the week. The light dollar strength this morning and on Friday has given wheat some outside market resistance to higher prices.
Plains’ weather looks to push planting forward with progress listed at 60% complete last Monday, which is in line with the average pace. The wet weather this past week was good for the crop even if some of the last third of the winter wheat could be planted slightly late.
Minneapolis continues to have the friendly fundamentals; when that is priced in will remain a big question for wheat the rest of 2021. KC December chart support is at the 20-day moving average at 7.29 with resistance at the Oct. 4 high of $7.64.
The U.S. stock market has been mixed with the Dow down 30 points at midday. The U.S. Dollar Index is 6 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are higher with crude up .28. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle lower and hogs higher. Precious metals are mixed.