The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced primarily on lower production from the NASS Small Grains Summary, issued September 30. Supplies are also lowered on reduced imports, down 10 million bushels, to 125 million on the import pace.
Annual feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 135 million despite the NASS Grain Stocks report indicating greater disappearance in the first quarter compared to last year. Significantly reduced supplies of Hard Red Spring, Durum, and White wheat for 2021/22 are expected to curtail feed and residual use for the remainder of 2021/22 along with the continued large price premium of wheat over corn.
Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 35 million bushels to 580 million, which are the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.70 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, nearly unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are projected falling by 8.6 million tons to 1,064.2 million, primarily on the combination of reduced beginning stocks for Iran and reduced production for Canada, Iran, and the United States.
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Iran’s 2021/22 beginning stocks are lowered 3.6 million, the result of a multi-year production revision from 2017/18 onward. Iran’s 2021/22 production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 13.5 million, based on indications of greater 2021/22 imports driven by reduced domestic supplies.
Canada’s production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 21.0 million on reduced harvested area as increased abandonment is expected from the severe drought affecting the Prairie Provinces this past summer.
Projected 2021/22 world consumption is lowered 2.6 million tons to 787.1 million with the majority of the reduction for food, seed, and industrial use in India and Canada and feed and residual use for the United States.
Projected 2021/22 global trade is fractionally lower at 199.6 million tons on lower exports by Canada that are nearly offset by higher exports by Australia, the EU, and India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are reduced 6.0 million tons to 277.2 million and are the lowest since 2016/17 with Iran, the United States, and Australia accounting for most of the reduction.