WASDE Oilseeds: Higher U.S. Soybean Production, Ending Stocks

U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 130.8 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month with higher soybean production partly offset by lower forecasts for sunflowerseed, canola, peanuts, and cottonseed. Soybean production is forecast at 4.4 billion bushels, up 74 million on higher yields.

Harvested area is unchanged at 86.4 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 51.5 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from the September forecast. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. Soybean supplies for 2021/22 are projected at 4.7 billion bushels, up 145 million on higher production and beginning stocks.

With higher crush and unchanged exports, 2021/22 ending stocks are projected at 320 million bushels, up 135 million from last month.

cents reflecting larger supplies. The soybean meal price is forecast at $325.00 per short ton, down $35.00. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65 cents per pound.

Foreign 2021/22 oilseed production is lowered 2.4 million tons to 497.4 million on lower soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed output. Soybean production is lowered for Argentina, India, and the EU. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 51.0 million on lower harvested area.

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Sunflowerseed production is lowered for Ukraine and Russia on recent harvest results. Canola production for Canada is lowered 1.0 million tons to 13.0 million, reflecting reports by Statistics Canada.

Global soybean supply and demand forecasts for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks, lower crush, and higher ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect increases for the United States, Argentina, and China. Argentina’s beginning stocks are raised on a downward revision to 2020/21 crush.

The 2021/22 crush for Argentina is also lowered, leading to lower exports of meal and oil. China’s 2020/21 crush is lowered 1.0 million tons to 93.0 million based on end of year data. Global soybean ending stocks for 2021/22 are increased 5.7 million tons to 104.6 million, with higher stocks for the United States, Argentina, and China.

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