WASDE Coarse Grains: Higher U.S. Corn Production, Exports, Ending Stocks

    Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

    This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly higher production, increased exports, lower feed and residual use, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.019 billion bushels, up 23 million on a marginal increase in yield to 176.5 bushels per acre.

    Corn supplies are forecast up 72 million bushels from last month, on slightly higher production and increased beginning stocks based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting larger supplies and expectations of reduced competition from other major exporters.

    Projected feed and residual use is lowered 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2020/21. With supply rising and use falling, corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised 92 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

    Grain sorghum production is forecast higher from last month, with a 2.6-bushel per acre increase in yield to 72.3 bushels per acre. Barley and oat production estimates are updated based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary report.

    Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast down 2.9 million tons to 1,494.0 million. The 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, virtually unchanged trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.

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    Foreign corn production is forecast essentially unchanged as increases for the EU, Canada, Venezuela, and Serbia are largely offset by declines for Ukraine, Russia, and Guatemala. EU corn production is raised reflecting increases for Poland and Romania more than offset declines for France and Bulgaria.

    Corn production in Canada is higher reflecting favorable yield prospects for Ontario. Projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are lowered based on reported harvest results to date.

    Corn exports are raised for India, the United States, and the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam. For 2020/21, corn exports for Brazil are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments through the month of September. For 2021/22, corn imports are lowered for Vietnam, Chile, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, but raised for Bangladesh.

    Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for China and Mexico, with a partly offsetting reduction for Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 301.7 million, are up 4.1 million.

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