The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower projected imports as they more than offset minimally higher production.
NASS increased the average all rice yield by 2 pounds per acre, to 7,625 pounds in the October 12 Crop Production report, as production is fractionally higher. Imports are reduced 2.0 million cwt, to 36.0 million, on the continued trend of lower year-to-year long-grain monthly imports and expectations that higher freight costs and reduced availability of shipping containers will persist into 2021/22.
Total domestic and residual use is decreased by 1.0 million cwt to 146.0 million on lower supplies and ending stocks are decreased to 33.2 million cwt, down 1.0 million. The season-average farm price for all rice is unchanged at $14.80 per cwt.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised by 2.0 million tons to 695.9 million for 2021/22, mostly on a larger Indian crop that would be another record. India’s 2021/22 rice exports are raised 1.5 million tons to 18.5 million but still below exports in 2020/21, now estimated at a record 20.0 million, or more than 40 percent of global trade.
Global 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 183.6 million, primarily on increases for China and India, which comprise 61 and 19 percent of world stocks, respectively.