Traders were somewhat torn over USDA’s crop data. The U.S. numbers were bullish, as both production and ending stocks were lower. However, the “bearish rub” came in the world data. There, the tabulators lowered Chinese consumption and increased Pakistan’s production, causing global carryout to rise by some 455,000 bales.
The delayed Crop Progress report was released on Tuesday. It showed the U.S. crop is 20% gathered versus its year ago pace of 25% harvested. The ten-year average is 24%. Additional information showed the U.S. crop was 78% open versus 89% a year ago. The five-year average stands at 82%.
Weatherwise, the one- to five-day forecast indicates heavy rains for central Texas and western Oklahoma. The Delta and the Southeast only show moderate chances for rain. The longer-term forecasts, such as the six- to 10-day and the eight- to 14-day, do reflect drier conditions.
As a reminder weekly exports-sales are out on Friday. Given the weak-kneed world numbers of Tuesday’s WASDE, the market wants to see hefty foreign sales come Friday, with a big emphasis on China.
For Wednesday, close-in support for December cotton is $1.0350 and $1.0270, while resistance stands at $1.07 and $1.0930. The estimated morning volume is 15,335 contracts.