Grain Stocks Bearish for Corn, Soybeans, Bullish for Wheat – DTN

    On-farm storage bins. Photo by Mike Staton, Michigan State University

    Corn stocks for the old crop were reported at 1.24 billion bushels (bb), down 36% from the same period a year ago while old-crop soybeans came in at 256 million bushels (mb), higher than analyst expectations going into the report.

    The Sept. 1 stocks close out the 2020-21 crop year for both corn and beans.

    According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Thursday’s Sept. 1 grain stocks were bearish for corn and soybeans, but bullish for wheat. Hultman pegged the wheat production estimates as slightly bullish for wheat prices.

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    The 2020-21 old-crop corn stocks stored in all positions on Sept. 1 came in at 1.238 bb — the lowest in seven years and down 36% from a year earlier. Of those stocks, 394.9 mb were stored on farms, down 47% from last year’s on-farm storage. Off-farm stocks came in at 841.58 mb down 28% from last year. The June-August 2021 indicated disappearance (usage) came in at 2.87 bb, compared with 3.08 bb from the same quarter a year ago.

    Based on the end of year stock estimates, usage for exports and other data, the 2020 corn grain production was revised down by 71 mb from the previous estimate. Corn silage was revised down by 54,000 tons as well. Planted area for the 2020-21 crop was also revised to 90.7 million acres, and area harvested for grain was revised to 82.3 million acres.

    The area harvested for silage was revised to 6.71 million acres. The 2020-21 yield was also revised down to 171.4 bushels per acre, down .6 bushels per acre from the previous estimate.


    Soybean ending stocks as of Sept. 1 totaled 256 mb, 51% below last year’s levels and the lowest in five years. USDA reported that 68.1 mb were stored on farms, while 188 mb were in off-farm locations. Disappearance, which indicated usage, from June to August came in at 513 mb, a 40% reduction from last year.

    Based on disappearance data, stocks estimates and administrative program data, USDA revised 2020 production upwards by 80.8 mb. It boosted planted area to 83.4 million acres and harvested area to 82.6 million acres. The yield for 2020 was bumped up 0.8 bushels per acre to 51 bushels per acre. That puts revised production at 4.216 bb.


    All wheat stocks as of Sept. 1 totaled 1.78 bb, down 18% from a year ago. USDA reported 419 mb were stored on farms, while 1.36 bb were in off-farm locations. Usage from June to August 2021 was 711 mb, 2% higher than the previous year.


    All wheat production for 2021 was pegged at 1.65 bb, down 10% from 2020 and a significant drop from the August WASDE’s estimate of 1.697 bb. That figure came in on the lowest end of analyst pre-report estimates. Overall average wheat yield was set at 44.3 bushels per acre, down 5.4 bushels from 2020.

    Of that production, USDA estimated 1.28 bb are winter wheat, up 9% from last year. Durum was pegged at 37.3 mb, down 46%.

    As expected, the agency did adjust spring wheat production down significantly to 331 mb, down 44% from last year and down from the August WASDE’s estimate of 343 mb. The agency estimated that producers harvested only 10.2 million of the 11.6 million spring wheat acres planted, an abandonment rate of 11%. Acre losses were highest in Montana (down 25%), South Dakota (down 18%) and North Dakota (down 5%).

    Durum acres in the Northern Plains also took a hit, with USDA estimating a 6% abandonment rate, with losses concentrated in California, Montana and North Dakota.

    QUARTERLY STOCKS (million bushels)
    9/1/21 Avg High Low 6/1/21 9/1/20
    Corn 1,236 1,167 1,252 1,000 4,112 1,919
    Soybeans 256 172 202 145 767 525
    Wheat 1,780 1,857 1,998 1,783 844 2,158
    SMALL GRAINS SUMMARY (million bushels)
    2021-2022 Production
    9/30/21 Avg High Low Aug 2020
    All Wheat 1,646 1,681 1,720 1,648 1,697 1,826
    Winter 1,277 1,321 1,364 1,296 1,319 1,171
    HRW 749 778 785 772 777 659
    SRW 361 366 370 355 366 266
    White 167 174 182 166 176 246
    Spring 331 329 357 295 343 586
    Durum 37 34 38 31 35 69

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