DTN Grain Midday: Soybean Market Sinking

Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 17 to 19 cents lower and wheat is 5 to 11 cents lower.


Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday Monday with broad commodity weakness to start the week amid harvest progress and unsettled outside markets with issues regarding a large property developer in China. Ethanol margins will continue to struggle with natural gas and corn costs offsetting the rise in unleaded values and driving demand still tepid. South America will continue with early full season corn planting with little weather concerns there so far.

Corn basis will likely continue to drift lower into harvest with some isolated areas of strength that should push to above-average pace with the higher temps near term and some rains in the western belt. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with harvest progress just above average along with maturity remaining above average, with export inspections improving slightly to 403,104 metric tons. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.28.


Soybeans are 17 to 19 cents lower at midday with trade falling back to the lower end of the range with harvest progress, demand concerns from Asia and little bullish action from South America to start the week. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 0.95 cent to 1.05 cents lower. Warmer weather should continue to push the crop towards maturity with harvest ramping up this week and weekly crop progress expected to show above-average maturity, and steady conditions with export inspections improving slightly to 275,193 metric tons.

Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. Trade will watch South American weather, but widespread planting won’t come until the end of the month, depending on weather with the short-term forecast not bringing anything to excite the market. On the November soybean chart, resistance at the 20-day at $12.95 with support at the recent low at $12.65.


Wheat trade is 5 to 11 cents lower at midday with spillover from row crops and outside markets to start the week providing headwinds, but trade has battled back from early losses. The dollar pushed back over 93 points, carrying action back to the summer highs on flight to safety action. KC is at a 2-cent premium to Chicago with weaker action so far, with Minneapolis at a 192-cent premium on the December staying flat as well.

Weekly crop progress is expected to show winter wheat planting just ahead of average with export inspections in the 400,000 to 600,000 metric ton range. Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going with little fresh news on Southern Hemisphere weather so far. KC December on the chart has support at the 20-day at $7.10, which we are below at midday with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.36.


The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 540 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.05 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.80. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $14.00.

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