Rice Market: Favorable News in WASDE

Photo: University of Arkansas

Favorable news Friday in USDA’s supply/demand and Crop Production reports.  November rice futures closed 17 cents higher at $13.48/cwt. following the reports.  USDA made several adjustments to the new crop long-grain balance sheet.

  • Beginning stocks were reduced 2.1 million cwt. on increases in old crop domestic use and exports.
  • By far the largest adjustment was a 5.8 million cwt. cut in production. Using FSA’s certified acres this month (among other data sources) it appears the long-grain harvested acreage was reduced by 99,000 acres from the previous estimate used.  NASS currently has long-grain harvested acres at 1.942 million, compared to 2.041 million in the June Acreage
  • Total supply was reduced 7.9 million cwt. from last month to 203.9 million.
  • Domestic and residual use was lowered by 3.0 million cwt to 115.0 million.
  • Exports were unchanged at 65.0 million cwt.
  • Total usage was reduced 3 million cwt. to 180 million.
  • Projected 2021/22 ending stocks were reduced by 4.9 million cwt to 23.9 million.
  • The 2021/22 season-average farm price was increased $0.10 per cwt to $13 or $5.85 per bushel.
US LG Supply and Demand 2021-22

U.S. Long-Grain Supply and Demand, 2021/22. Click Image to Enlarge

The old crop (20/21) season-average farm price for long-grain was unchanged this month at $12.60/cwt. or $5.67 per bushel.  This would equate to a PLC payment for the 2020 crop of 63 cents per bushel (before sequestration).  The table below includes the projected 2020 payment rates per bushel for long-grain and southern medium grain.  Final 2020 marketing year average prices are expected to be announced October 29, 2021.

Projected PLC Payment Rates Sept 2021

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Crop Progress: 

In Monday’s Crop Progress USDA estimated that 28% of the U.S. rice crop had been harvested; three (3) percentage points ahead of last year and 3 points behind the 5-year average.  Arkansas and Mississippi were both at 18% harvested; up from 6% the prior week. Missouri was in-line with its average pace at 6% harvested. Louisiana and Texas were 80 and 84% complete respectively.

Dry and warm conditions this week have allowed for significant headway in the Midsouth harvest.  Based on historical data, Arkansas’ should be 40 percent harvested by September 12.

Rice Harvest Progress

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Gulf Shipping Update:

Earlier this week the U.S. Coast Guard opened the Lower Mississippi to barge traffic, with some restrictions on the number of barges that can be towed.

Some grain export operations have resumed this week.  Louis Dreyfus Co. began loading soybeans last weekend; another ship was being loaded with corn yesterday.  ADM restarted this week using rigs that can transfer grain from barges onto bulk ships.  ADM expects elevators in Ama and Reserve to restart by the end of the month, and repairs to an elevator in Destrehan to take “a few weeks longer” according to a release this week.

At least three other terminals are still without power, including the CHS Inc facility in Myrtle Grove and Cargill’s terminal in Reserve.  Bunge’s facility in Destrehan is also shut down.

Fertilizer Market:

CF Industries announced on Thursday (Sept. 9) that it has begun restarting its ammonia plants at Donaldsonville, La.  Start-up of other units including urea and UAN will follow.  CF had halted production just before Hurricane Ida hit land, however, the storm disrupted power to the plant.  Gulf urea barge values hit a 9-year high last week.

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