Corn is 2 to 3 cent lower, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat is 3 cents lower to 5 cents higher.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday Monday with trade fading from Friday’s action a bit as harvest is expected to expand this week. Ethanol margins should remain in the recent range with cheaper fall blends and weaker corn basis likely to shore up margins with natural gas prices the biggest short-term headwind, with the transition to the fall driving season ongoing.
South America will continue with early full season corn planting and little weather concerns there so far. The export inspections were poor again at 138,139 metric tons as the port issues continue to be reflected. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions with maturity remaining above average with the warm weather.
Corn basis will likely continue to drift lower into harvest. On the December contract, we have support at the fresh low at $4.97 while resistance is the 20-day at $5.36.
Soybeans are narrowly mixed at midday with trade remaining rangebound with another positive close needed to find short covering as harvest begins. Shipping is likely to remain slow short term as the gulf recovers with another 132,000 metric tons of fresh sales to unknown on the daily wire. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is flat to 0.10 cent higher.
Warmer weather should continue to push the crop towards maturity. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in recent days. Trade will watch South American weather, but widespread planting won’t come until the end of the month, depending on weather with some recent showers.
Weekly export inspections were poor again at 105,368 metric tons until more port capacity is restored with weekly crop progress showing steady conditions and above-normal maturity. On the November soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at $13.07 with support at the recent low at $12.65.
Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 5 cents higher at midday with KC action leading as negative spillover from row crops ease and wheat builds support at the bottom of the range. The dollar is closing back in on 93 points on the index. KC is back to even with Chicago repeating the action from the start of last week, with Minneapolis at a 185-cent premium on the December in weaker action.
Weather in the Plains looks dry short term as planting gets going. Weekly export inspections improved at 547,943 metric tons, with winter wheat planting likely to remain near an average pace. KC December on the chart has resistance at the 20-day at $7.16, which we faded from again with the fresh low at $6.76 1/2.
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 285 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.05 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.70. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.40.