DTN Fertilizer Trends: Potash Continues to Lead Climb Higher

Most average retail fertilizer prices continued to rise the second week of August 2021, once again led by potash, according to sellers surveyed by DTN.

Like last week, six of the eight major fertilizers were higher compared to last month, with only potash up a significant amount, which DTN designates 5% or more. Potash was up 13% compared to the prior month and now has an average price of $563 per ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were just slightly higher. DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, urea $555/ton, 10-34-0 $630/ton and anhydrous $740/ton.

Two fertilizers, UAN28 and UAN32, were slightly lower in price looking back a month. UAN28 had an average price of $366/ton and UAN32 $418/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.60/lb.N, anhydrous $0.45/lb.N, UAN28 $0.65/lb.N and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

In a post to the farmdocDaily e-newsletter, University of Illinois ag economists Gary Schnitkey, Nick Paulson and Krista Swanson, along with Ohio State University ag economist Carl Zulauf, wrote about 2021 fertilizer prices and the implications for 2022 costs. The post can be found here.

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported Illinois fertilizer prices on July 29, 2021, with anhydrous at $746/ton, DAP $717/ton and potash at $600/ton, considerably higher from a year earlier. The last time the anhydrous price was this high was June 2014, DAP December 2008 and potash November 2012.

Anhydrous price increased from $487/ton to $746/ton in 2021, up $259/ton or 53%. DAP rose from $390/ton to $717/ton, up $327/ton or 83%. Potash price increased from $350/ton to $600/ton in 2021 and saw a rise of $250/ton or 71%.

“Current higher fertilizer prices will translate into higher fertilizer costs for 2022 production of corn and soybeans,” the report said. “However, exact increases depend on farmer behavior and how fertilizer prices change from now through the 2022 fertilizer purchasing season.”

While current retail fertilizer prices are high, they are not at all-time highs … yet. According to AMS prices tracked since 2009, three other years (2009, 2012, 2013) saw anhydrous, DAP and potash prices higher than their current levels.

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“History suggests that fertilizer prices can change rapidly, likely bringing modifications to fertilizer cost projections,” the report said. “Further note that several periods of sharp declines have occurred in history.”

Retail fertilizer prices compared to a year ago show all fertilizers have increased significantly.

10-34-0 is now 35% more expensive, urea is 56% higher, potash is 59% more expensive, UAN32 is 61% higher, DAP is 63% more expensive, UAN28 65% higher, DAP is 66% more expensive and MAP is 74% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Aug 10-14 2020 426 434 353 355
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020 434 445 345 360
Oct 5-9 2020 441 466 335 361
Nov 2-6 2020 447 479 331 358
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020 455 499 340 359
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 475 537 366 367
Jan 25-29 2021 500 580 379 405
Feb 22-26 2021 605 661 408 464
Mar 22-26 2021 616 696 428 499
Apr 19-23 2021 627 703 432 510
May 17-21 2021 642 708 440 521
Jun 14-18 2021 661 719 454 531
Jul 12-16 2021 693 730 501 550
Aug 9-13 2021 695 755 563 555
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Aug 10-14 2020 465 447 221 259
Sep 7-Sep 11, 2020 459 434 216 253
Oct 5-9 2020 457 424 209 250
Nov 2-6 2020 455 423 208 248
Nov 30-Dec 4 2020 459 427 208 249
Dec 28-Jan 1 2021 464 470 209 250
Jan 25-29 2021 489 489 220 258
Feb 22-26 2021 532 544 250 296
Mar 22-26 2021 599 684 335 376
Apr 19-23 2021 612 707 348 391
May 17-21 2021 620 716 361 407
Jun 14-18 2021 621 719 365 414
Jul 12-16 2021 624 725 368 418
Aug 9-13 2021 630 740 366 418

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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