The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. The NASS Crop Production report forecast all wheat production at 1,697 million bushels, down 49 million from the previous forecast. Most of the reduction is in Hard Red Winter and Soft White Winter.
The all wheat yield is forecast at 44.5 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from the previous forecast. Feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 160 million on reduced supplies. Food use for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 is reduced slightly, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Milling Products report.
Wheat exports are unchanged but there are offsetting by-class export changes for several classes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 38 million bushels to 627 million and are 26 percent below last year. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $6.70.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are projected to decline 16.8 million tons to 1,065.7 million, primarily on lower production for Russia, Canada, and the United States. Russia’s production is reduced 12.5 million tons to 72.5 million on decreased winter wheat production, which is only slightly offset by higher spring wheat output.
Winter wheat harvested area is reduced on updated area data from Rosstat, Russia’s statistical agency, while yield is lowered on harvest results reported by the Ministry of Agriculture. A series of thawing and refreezing events during February and March, referred to as “ice crusting,” resulted in reductions for both area harvested and yield for Russia’s winter wheat.
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Canada’s production is lowered 7.5 million tons to 24.0 million on worsening drought conditions across the Prairie Provinces during July. This would be the smallest Canadian wheat crop since 2010/11. Partially offsetting these reductions are production increases for Ukraine and Australia.
Ukraine is raised to a record 33.0 million tons on increased area as reported by its State Statistical Service and a higher yield on harvest results to date. Australia is increased 1.5 million tons to 30.0 million as continued abundant precipitation has benefited crop conditions.
Projected 2021/22 world consumption is reduced by 4.2 million tons to 786.7 million. Most of the consumption decreases are for feed and residual use with the curtailed supplies in Russia and Canada. Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 5.8 million tons to 198.2 million on reduced exports for Canada and Russia only partially offset by higher exports by Ukraine, Australia, and the EU.
The reduction in aggregate exportable supplies from major exporters resulted in decreased imports from several countries including Afghanistan and Algeria, while larger crops in Brazil and Morocco reduce import demand there. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 12.6 million tons to 279.1 million with China accounting for 51 percent of the total.