The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on the combination of lower beginning stocks, smaller production, and decreased imports. Beginning stocks are lower based on higher exports and fewer imports in 2020/21.
The first survey-based 2021/22 production forecast reduced total rice production by 2.0 million cwt to 197.4 million, all on lower yields. The all rice yield is 7,544 pounds per acre and is down 76 pounds from the previous forecast. Total rice imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt, all for long-grain, to 38.0 million on the reduced availability of shipping containers and higher freight costs, which are expected to persist into 2021/22.
Total domestic and residual use is lowered by 2.0 million cwt to 151.0 million on the smaller crop size and less imports. Total exports are increased to 91.0 million cwt as higher long-grain exports more than offset lower medium- and short-grain exports. Long-grain exports are raised by 2.0 million cwt to 65.0 million on sales to Iraq for the first time in two years.
Medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 26.0 million on reduced supplies and increased competition. Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are reduced by 4.0 million cwt to 37.3 million, down 15 percent from last year.
The 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price is increased $0.10 per cwt to $14.50.
Rice News on AgFax
The 2021/22 global outlook is for increased supplies, marginally higher consumption, larger trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised by 3.4 million tons to 684.4 million, primarily on a combination of higher beginning stocks for China, Vietnam, and Taiwan and increased production for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Bangladesh production is raised to a record 36.3 million tons on increased area harvested and a higher yield.
World 2021/22 consumption is raised by 0.3 million tons to a record 514.3 million, primarily on higher Bangladesh consumption. Global 2021/22 trade is raised 0.6 million tons to 47.7 million, mainly on increased exports by India.
Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are increased by 3.2 million tons to 170.1 million, mostly on higher stocks for China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.