U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, and exports. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2020/21 crush and exports. Soybean production for 2021/22 is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, down 66 million on lower yields.
Harvested area is forecast at 86.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.0 bushels per acre is reduced 0.8 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2020/21 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 3 percent from last year.
Soybean crush is reduced 20 million bushels on a lower domestic soybean meal disappearance forecast which is reduced in line with the prior year, and lower soybean meal exports. With soybean exports down 20 million bushels on lower supplies, ending stocks are forecast at 155 million bushels, unchanged from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2021/22 is forecast at $13.70 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $385 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 65.0 cents per pound.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, exports, and slightly higher ending stocks compared to last month.
Foreign oilseed production is reduced 3.6 million tons to 501.4 million, reflecting lower canola production for Canada and sunflowerseed for Russia. Partly offsetting is higher Ukrainian sunflowerseed. Canada’s canola crop is lowered 4.2 million tons to 16 million on drought in the Canadian Prairies.
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Russian sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 15.5 million as pockets of dryness and extreme heat in key regions lower overall crop prospects. In contrast, Ukraine’s sunflowerseed production is forecast higher as a wet spring followed by beneficial rains during June and July in southern Ukraine improved yield potential.
Global 2021/22 oilseed crush is lowered mainly on lower soybean crush for China and lower rapeseed supplies leading to reduced crush for the EU, Canada, and China. Soybean crush for China is lowered 2.0 million tons to 98 million, in line with downward revisions to crush and soybean meal consumption in the prior year.
With lower demand, China’s 2021/22 soybean imports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 101 million. Global oilseed stocks are slightly higher as lower production is paired with lower use.
Lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed stocks are offset by higher global soybean stocks, which are raised 1.7 million tons to 96.1 million mainly on higher stocks for China.