WASDE Coarse Grains: Reduced U.S. Production, Exports

    Photo: Ohio State University

    This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, increased food, seed, and industrial use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 35 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21.

    Reduced exports are partially offset by greater corn used for ethanol, starch, and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 14.8 billion bushels, down 415 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 174.6 bushels per acre, is 4.9 bushels below last month’s trend-based projection.

    Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that record-high yields are expected in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. In contrast, yields in Minnesota and South Dakota are forecast below a year ago.

    Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is down 190 million bushels to 14.7 billion. Feed and residual use is down 100 million bushels based mostly on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected higher based on observed use during 2020/21.

    Exports for 2021/22 are lowered 100 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 190 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $5.75 per bushel.

    This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly lower trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher relative to last month. Ukraine corn production is raised as a reduction in area is more than offset by a boost in yield prospects.

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    Russia corn production is increased based on expectations of greater area. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting reductions for Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria that are partially offset by increases for France, Croatia, and Germany. Other notable corn production changes include projected increases for India, Canada, and Moldova, with a reduction for Serbia.

    Foreign barley production is lower, with reductions for Canada, Kazakhstan, Turkey, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting increases for Ukraine, Australia, and Morocco.

    Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2021/22 include forecast corn export increases for Ukraine, Russia, and India with reductions for Serbia and the EU. Corn imports are raised for Bangladesh, Thailand, and the United Kingdom but are reduced for Iran, Vietnam, Mexico, Egypt, Japan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria.

    China barley imports are reduced reflecting sharply lower exports for Canada. For 2020/21, for the local marketing year beginning March 2021 corn exports are lowered for Brazil but raised for Argentina. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are down 1.7 million tons to 253.1 million.

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