WASDE Rice: Higher U.S. Exports, Ending Stocks

Rice field. Photo: Horizon Ag

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, higher exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are raised slightly as increased beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production.

Beginning stocks are higher, primarily due to lower estimates for domestic use and residual for 2020/21, as implied by the latest NASS Rice Stocks report. Domestic use is also reduced in 2021/22 by 3.0 million cwt to 153.0 million, although still a record.

All rice production is reduced 2 percent to 199.3 million cwt with all the decline occurring in medium- and short-grain. The severe drought in California reduced medium- and short-grain area as reported in NASS Acreage. The all rice yield is also lowered based on less California area, which consistently achieves higher yields than the southern rice producing States.

Because of reduced supplies of medium- and short-grain, imports for these classes are raised to a record 8.0 million cwt which increased all rice imports to a record at 39.0 million. All rice exports are raised 2.0 million cwt to 90.0 million (all long-grain) on expectations the United States will continue its recent expansion of rough rice exports to Venezuela and other Latin American markets.

Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are raised by 2.3 million cwt to 41.3 million with long-grain accounting for all the increase. The 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price is increased $0.20 per cwt to $14.40, all on higher medium- and short-grain prices expected for California and Other States.

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The 2021/22 global outlook is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, marginally higher trade, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced by 2.0 million tons to 681.0 million, primarily on a combination of lower beginning stocks for India and decreased production for Egypt, EU, and United States.

India’s beginning stocks are reduced as its 2020/21 exports are raised 2.0 million tons to a record 19.0 million on a continued robust pace and very competitive export prices.

World 2021/22 consumption is reduced by 0.6 million tons to a still record 514.0 million. Global 2021/22 trade is raised 0.1 million tons to 47.1 million, on higher exports by the United States, Brazil, and Australia.

Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are reduced by 1.4 million tons to 167.0 million, primarily on India as its stocks are at a 4-year low.

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