Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher up front and 9 to 10 cents lower on new crop; soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower, and wheat is 3 cents lower to 24 cents higher.
Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher up front, with new crop 9 to 10 cents lower as early strength on new crop fades as weather forecasts look manageable for many short term, while spread strength continues to build again, taking the July/Dec towards $1.20. Ethanol margins are seeing support from corn values holding the lower end of the range with policy concerns limiting upside while demand remains solid short term.
Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late rains while U.S. weather is watched for follow-up rains as well as temps into July with less heat stress for most this week.
Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop as well as feed wheat becoming available. Weekly crop conditions were down 3% to 65% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.65 failing to hold above on tests, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.22 as support.
Soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower with meal unable to support rallies so far as oil recovers with no follow-up sales of new crop after the 456,000 metric tons announced Monday. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 0.80 cent to 1.00 cent higher.
The weather pattern should allow for better short-term development with rains needed to boost double-crop areas during planting as wheat comes off. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 2% lower to 60% good to excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, with planting at 97% versus 96% on average, emergence at 91% versus 85% on average and 5% blooming, same as average. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. basis returning to flat short term.
Grain News on AgFax
On the July soybean chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at R13.65 as trade rebounds with the $14.50 area that was pre-washout support the next round up as resistance.
Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 24 cents higher with spring wheat the leader while winter wheat action is flat to start. The dollar is firmer, testing 92 points on the index again, holding the highest levels since March. Harvest should continue to pick up steam with last week’s heat pushing action along. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for now.
KC continues at a 58-cent discount to Chicago backing off the fresh highs Monday, with Minneapolis at a 132-cent premium, getting back to the highs. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat at 49% good to excellent, 20% poor to very poor, down 1% with 17% harvested versus 26% on average. Spring wheat is 27% headed versus 18% on average, and 27% good to excellent; 37% poor to very poor, down 10%.
KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.20 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.88.
The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 45 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.08 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with crude off $0.65. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $4.