DTN Livestock Open: Will Markets Follow Grain Rebound?

Nearly everywhere you looked Thursday, liquidation was rampant. The weakness Thursday will be difficult to overcome in the coming days as traders will be hesitant to buy back into the market until some stability is seen.

Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $234.42 -1.98*
Hogs: Lower Futures: Lower Lean Equiv: $131.55 +4.31**
* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue.
(The Live Cattle Equiv. Index has been updated to depict recent changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a blood bath in nearly the entire commodity complex Thursday. No matter where you looked, futures were substantially lower. But grains and lean hogs were exceptionally lower with corn and hogs limit down. Soybeans made a historic one-day drop as selling erupted. The decline of grain futures did nothing the stem the selling tide.

Generally, cattle would have benefited from such a severe price decline. Only feeder cattle were able to close higher in the 2022 contracts. The culmination of a number of issues triggered liquidation that will be difficult to recover from.

Cash cattle held Thursday at an average of $4.00 higher in the North and $2.00 higher in the South, which should have provided some support, but when technical selling gripped the market, nothing else mattered. China was the second largest buyer of feed on the weekly export sales report, but that was offset by lower sales.

Boxed beef continues to fall with choice cuts down $3.92 and select cuts down $2.72. I think we can confidently say the top is in the boxed beef market.

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