Corn is 20 to 22 cents lower up front and 17 to 19 cents lower on new crop; soybeans are 38 to 40 cents lower with flat spreads, and wheat is 12 cents lower to 1 cent higher.
Corn trade is 20 to 22 cents lower up front and 17 to 19 cents lower on new crop with spreads softening at midday. Early strength with spillover from soybeans, some rains and lackluster exports, along with the sharply stronger dollar, is keeping pressure on at midday. Ethanol margins are seeing support from corn values, but concerns about blending rates will limit upside.
Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short term as the crop advances toward harvest with some late rains. Meanwhile, U.S. weather will be watched for consistency in the second week forecast while heat will be the rule of many the next few days with some better than expected Iowa rains overnight.
Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. Weekly export sales were soft at 18,000 metric tons of old crop and 276,100 metric tons of new. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at $6.67 with the late strength Wednesday holding, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.28.
Soybeans are 38 to 40 cents lower at midday with big soy oil liquidation leading trade down. There is little fresh news otherwise and little other bullish news to boost trade as we get more oversold. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil was 3.80 cents to 4.20 cents lower.
The weather pattern should allow for short-term stress to give way to rains in the center of the belt. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. basis soft with processors and exporters softening bids recently.
Weekly export sales remain soft at 65,300 metric tons old and 6,500 new; 177,300 of old meal and 7,800 of new, with 2,200 of oil. On the July soybean chart, support is $14.00, with the lower Bollinger Band resistance at $14.36, which are solidly below.
Wheat trade is 12 cents lower to 1 cent higher with spring wheat leading on weather concerns with spillover from row crops, the stronger dollar and harvest pressure limiting winter wheats. The dollar is attempting to consolidate at over 91 points on the index post Fed, which will work to limit upside if sustained with more consistent action later in the week.
Warmer weather this week should help to bring winter wheat along after the slow down last week with early harvest getting underway on the far Southern Plains. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for now.
KC continues at a 56-cent discount to Chicago widening a bit, with Minneapolis at a 107-cent premium. Weekly export sales were soft at 287,100 metric tons range. KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.25 with support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.97.
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 220 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.60. Interest rate products are higher. Energies are weaker with crude down $0.90. Livestock trade is mixed with feeder cattle leading.