WASDE Wheat: Higher Domestic Use, Unchanged Exports

Texas A&M AgriLife Communications photo by Kay Ledbetter

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are raised as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,898 million bushels, up 26 million from last month on increased Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter production.

The all wheat yield is 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month. Beginning stocks declined due to higher 2020/21 exports, which were raised 20 million bushels to 985 million, primarily on larger recent monthly exports.

Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels to 180 million on the higher supplies as wheat is expected to be priced competitively with corn in the summer months. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised 2020/21 ending stocks.

The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.50 per bushel, compared to $5.05 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month.

The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 4.3 million tons to 1,087.9 million, mainly on higher production for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as world production is projected at a record 794.4 million.

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The EU is raised 3.5 million tons to 137.5 million on recent beneficial precipitation across Northern and Central Europe. The largest increases are for Germany, France, and Romania. Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 86.0 million. Winter wheat production is increased on a higher yield with widespread spring rainfall across Western Russia, while spring wheat is raised on higher area, based on Agricultural Ministry estimates.

Ukraine is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 29.5 million on continued favorable weather conditions. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 2.4 million tons to a record 791.1 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use by the EU and Russia on increased supplies.

Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 203.2 million, on increased exports by Ukraine and India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 296.8 million with China accounting for 48 percent of the total.

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