WASDE Rice: 2020/21 Trade Revisions Result in Lower U.S. Ending Stocks

Rice irrigated with poly pipe. ©Debra L Ferguson

The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. All of the 2021/22 changes are the result of 2020/21 trade revisions.

The 2021/22 all rice beginning stocks are reduced 2.0 million cwt to 40.9 million, due to a combination of lower imports and higher exports for 2020/21. All rice 2020/21 imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 34.7 million on reduced volumes from Asia in recent months.

All rice 2020/21 exports are raised 1.0 million cwt to 92.0 million, primarily on increased export sales and shipments to Venezuela. Both of these trade changes are for long-grain. Since there are no other 2021/22 supply changes and no changes to the use categories, 2021/22 projected ending stocks are reduced by 2.0 million cwt to 39.0 million.

The 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $14.20 per cwt, compared to $13.90 for 2020/21, which is also unchanged this month.

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The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption and trade, and increased stocks. Supplies are raised by 1.6 million tons to 682.9 million, primarily on a combination of higher beginning stocks for China and Bangladesh and increased production for India.

World production is raised to a record 506.6 million tons, mainly on higher production for India, as its harvested area is expected to remain at the same level as 2020/21, which was also raised this month. World 2021/22 consumption is raised by 1.2 million tons to a record 514.5 million, mainly on India’s increased supplies.

Global 2021/22 trade is raised 0.5 million tons to 47.0 million, primarily on higher exports by India. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 0.4 million tons to 168.4 million with China accounting for 65 percent of the total.

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