WASDE Oilseeds: Increased Domestic Beginning, Ending Stocks

Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush forecast for 2020/21. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175 billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher soybean meal imports.

Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely, soybean oil domestic disappearance is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong consumption to date.

With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last month.

The 2021/22 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month. The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production and ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is forecast up 0.6 million tons to 632.9 million, with higher canola production partly offset by lower cottonseed.

EU canola production is increased 0.6 million to 17.2 million as cool spring weather coupled with timely May rainfall boosted yield prospects particularly for France, Germany, and Poland. Australian canola production is also revised up 0.2 million tons to 3.7 million on higher area harvested and yield.

Global 2021/22 soybean ending stocks are raised 1.5 million tons to 92.6 million, driven by higher beginning stocks for the United States and Brazil. Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production is raised 1.0 million tons to 137.0 million, mainly on higher yields for Mato Grosso do Sul.

Another notable oilseed change includes a 0.5-million-ton reduction to 18.5 million for Malaysian 2020/21 palm oil production due to lower-than-expected recent monthly output.

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