The U.S. cotton projections for 2021/22 show a 100,000-bale increase in exports from last month, to 14.8 million bales, as stronger than expected late-season 2020/21 shipments extend past July 31.
U.S. 2021/22 production and consumption are unchanged from last month, and with lower beginning stocks and higher exports, ending stocks are now 200,000 bales lower, at 2.9 million. The upland cotton farm price for 2021/22 is unchanged, at 75 cents per pound, while the 2020/21 price is reduced 1 cent to 67 cents per pound.
Global ending stocks in 2021/22 are also projected lower this month, down 1.7 million bales to 89.3 million. Beginning stocks are slightly lower as a 625,000-bale increase in 2020/21 consumption more than offsets higher estimated supplies. Consumption is also higher for 2021/22, up 1.1 million bales, as increases for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey offset a lower forecast for India.
Global cotton production in 2021/22 is 570,000 bales lower this month, led by a 750,000-bale reduction in China following recent surveys indicating lower than expected area in Southern Xinjiang. World trade is 1.1 million bales higher, with increased imports for China, Bangladesh, and Turkey.
Expected exports are higher this month for Brazil, Australia, and Tanzania, as well as the United States.