This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports.
Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to COVID-19.
Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high prices. With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, marginally higher trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Barley production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting forecast increases for Germany and France that are partly offset by a reduction for Spain. Barley production is also lowered for Turkey.
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Brazil corn production for 2020/21 is reduced on lower yield expectations for second-crop corn, based on below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during the month of May. Partly offsetting is greater indicated area for the second and third crops.
Major global trade changes for 2021/22 include larger forecast barley exports for the EU with increased imports for China. For 2020/21, Brazil’s corn exports are lowered for the marketing year beginning March 2021. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2021/22 are raised relative to last month, mostly reflecting increases for Pakistan and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.